Attribution Reality Calculator

See your true incremental ROAS by adjusting for platform overlap, organic lift, and repeat customers

Input Your Metrics

x

The ROAS reported in Meta, Google, TikTok, etc.

30%

% of claimed conversions also touched by other channels

15%

% of sales that would have happened anyway without ads

25%

% of conversions from existing customers

Reality Check Results

Platform ROAS
4.50x
What the ad platform claims
Blended ROAS
2.68x
After overlap & organic adj.
Incremental ROAS
2.21x
True net new revenue impact
Likely Overstated
50.9%
Platform vs reality gap

ROAS Waterfall Breakdown

Why These Adjustments Matter for SMBs

Channel Overlap

Multiple ad platforms often claim credit for the same conversion. If Google says it drove a sale and Meta says it drove the same sale, your true ROAS is lower. SMBs can't afford to double-count budget.

Organic Lift / Brand Demand

Some customers would buy from you anyway via direct search, word-of-mouth, or brand recall. Platforms take credit for this "organic" demand. Adjusting shows what ads truly drove net-new growth.

Repeat Customer Discount

Acquiring new customers costs 5-7x more than retaining them. We assume 70% of repeat purchases are non-incremental to your ad spend. SMBs need to separate acquisition ROAS from retention to budget correctly.

Cash Flow Reality

Misleading ROAS leads to overspending and cash crunches. Knowing your true incremental ROAS helps you set profitable bids, pause bad campaigns faster, and scale winners with confidence.

Want help pressure-testing these numbers?

Send the output and campaign goal, and I’ll help identify the smartest next move.

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